I just realized that since reopening my blog I haven’t written anything about MMA yet.  Shame on me, shame.  So what better way to start writing about it again then with the upcoming UFC 117 tomorrow night.  And this card on paper should be an absolutely great night of fights including on

e title match and two fights with title implications.  Oddly enough ever fight on the card involves an American against a Brazilian.  Coincidence?

So now I will for a few minutes pretend I’m a part of real MMA media and give you my take on what to expect of the five scheduled live fights.

Clay Guida vs. Rafael dos Anjos

This match will probably piss the normal meathead crowd off because I imagine it will be on the ground the majority of the fight.  Clay likes to take people down and smash away while dos Anjos is a BJJ wiz.  So my thought will be that this fight will be won or lost on the mat.

If Guida can be mistake free and do what he does best then I think he can definitely take it.  But one mistake can lead to a submission being slapped on.  I think even as intense as Guida is he is too smart to make silly adrenaline rush mistakes.

My Pick: Clay Guida by decision

Matt Hughes vs. Ricardo Almeida

This one has potential to be just like the first as UFC Hall of Famer Matt Hughes takes on another BJJ specialist in Ricardo Almeida.  I like this because it sort of has some story behind it as Almeida goes out to face the man that beat up his mentor Renzo Gracie.

Hughes is getting up there in age and not everyone can be a freak of nature like Randy Couture but Hughes has only lost 3 times in the past 6 years and those were to Georges St. Pierre twice and Thiago Alves.  Not bad if you ask me.

Almeida has though has been looking very good since returning to the octagon in 2008.  His only loss was a close split decision to Patrick Cote and his last two wins were against Kendall Grove and the up and coming Matt Brown.

In the end I think it will be again who wins the fight on the ground.  Even though I am not a huge fan of the guy I think Hughes as one more win him with this one.

My Pick: Matt Hughes by decision

Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves

This is a rematch a lot of hardcore MMA fans have been wanting to see.  These two welterweights clashed in 2006 the first time with Fitch coming out victorious but in the time since then Alves has improved significantly including a string of wins over such names as Chris Lytle, Karo Parisyan, Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck.  The two do share the fact that they both have received title shots at GSP already.  And they were both man handled for 5 rounds in their respective shots.

Fitch has strung together 4 wins in a row since his loss and this will be Alves first fight since the loss to GSP.  Fitch gets crapped on a lot by fans for what is thought of as boring fighting.  He takes his opponents down and grinds to wins most of the time.  He wants to finish them but has seemed to have problems with doing so.

Alves is a beast with his stand up but an irregularity in his brain recently pushed this fight back and it will be interesting to see how he fairs from a long lay off and this medical condition.  Rumors are also going around that Alves is having a hard time cutting weight to make the 170 lbs limit.  Will that play a factor?

Dana White has said that the winner of this fight very well could get to fight the winner of the GSP/Koscheck match for the title.  I think Fitch definitely deserves to be in those talks but Alves is on his first fight back after his title shot and I don’t think he should be thrown back in immediately with one win.  But it’s not my job.

My Pick: Jon Fitch by decision

Roy Nelson vs. Junior dos Santos

This is one of the ones I’m really looking forward to.  It’s no secret I’m a fan of Big Country.  A lot of my friends hate him.  Mostly because he beat up their false demigod Kimbo but many just think he’s a big fat moron.  My retort is just watch the man fight.  He is a world class grappler who’s BJJ is constantly underrated and can do pretty damn good on his feet too.  Don’t believe me?  Ask Brendan Schaub and Stefan Struve if he is any good with his striking.  That is if they remember that their fights with him.

Junior dos Santos has just torn through the heavyweight division with his stand up.  His last five wins are over Fabricio Werdum, Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop, Gilbert Yvel and Gabriel Gonzaga.  There isn’t a chump in that batch.  I would say dos Santos deserves a title shot now and doesn’t need to fight another fight to prove it.  He has been an absolute terror on his feet and he should be when you train at Black House with Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida.  His ground game hasn’t really been tested yet but he is currently a brown belt in BJJ under the Nogueria brothers, who apparently know a thing or two about jui jitsu.

It should be a very entertaining fight.  Nelson claims he isn’t afraid to stand and bang with dos Santos but that he isn’t an idiot either and if he feels that isn’t working will try to take it to the ground.  I for one would really like to see who dos Santos handles himself on the ground.  But in the end I’m thinking my boy Roy may be in the way of a freight train on it’s way to the title.

My Pick: Junior dos Santos by 2nd Round KO.

UFC Middleweight Title: Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen

If it weren’t for Chael Sonnen most people wouldn’t care about this fight.  Chael sold this card, plan and simple.  After Silva’s last three lackluster title defenses Chael came out guns a blazing.  He said what was on everyone else’s minds about Anderson and he didn’t let up.  He called Silva everything you can think of and even offered Silva a deadline to which he could pull out of the fight.  Gold I tell you!  And I for one have taken the Kool-Aid and believe in Chael.

Silva has looked totally uninterested in his last three title defenses.  He even tried to say that Vitor Belfort was undeserving of a title shot after only one fight back in the UFC.  Yes this came from the guy that got a title shot after only one fight.  Anderson must have never met the kettle.  I’m hoping that Chael’s pro wrestling like trash talk will make Anderson want to actually fight.  Will he?  I’m not sure.

I’ve been saying for awhile to friends and pretty much anyone that will listen that Silva is a counter striker.  He is quick enough and strong enough to take advantage of overly aggressive opponents (see Leban, Franklin, Irvin, Griffin).  While he is still a world class striker he just isn’t the same if the other fighter isn’t trying to attack him.  Cote, Lates and Maia learning from others didn’t charge in swinging like a sever year old wearing boxing gloves.  They tried to work their game.  It didn’t work but they tried.  Anderson then just kept looking for the opportunity to counter instead of becoming the aggressor himself against these fighters that aren’t known for having amazing stand up.

Chael I think will be aggressive but not on his feet.  I look for Sonnen to shoot and shoot early.  He will try to take to the ground and smash Silva’s face.  Chael’s words not mine.  Now Silva is a black belt in BJJ but we don’t see it too often because he’s so good on his feet.  It will be interesting to see if Chael thinking, “CHAEL SMASH” gets him caught in a submission.

So which way do I choose.  I’m going to have to say I’m a suck and I am buying the hype.

My Pick: Chael Sonnen by decision

So there you have it folks.  Predictions for UFC 117 from no one with real credentials in the media.  Just a big fan of MMA.  And by that I mean someone that doesn’t boo when the fight is taken to the mat and two ground guys go to work methodically.  Let me know what you think will happen and maybe I’ll tell you that you are wrong.

Hopefully I can write more about MMA in the future.  Maybe I’ll do a follow up and continue to do these preview/predictions.  What do you think?